PPIC by the Numbers

Proposition 73: Parental Notification Yes: 42% No: 48% Proposition 74: Tenure Yes: 46% No: 48% Proposition 75: Union Dues Yes: 46% No: 46% Proposition 76: Budget Reform Yes: 30% No: 62% Proposition 77: Redistricting Yes: 36% No: 50% Governor Schwarzenegger 33% approve 58% disapprove California Legislature 25% approve 56% disapprove President Bush 36% approve 60% disapprove The Schwarzenegger campaign quasi-released some of their internal poll numbers yesterday to a gaggle of reporters, trying to answer questions the PPIC poll will raise before they were even raised. According to John McLaughlin, the governor's pollster, the governor is ahead on both 75 and 77, hitting the 50 percent mark on each. On 74, Todd Harris, the governor's spokesman, said that they were in "a pitched hand to hand, bayonet battle." Ok, we can pretend that clears that up. Also, the governor's campaign has not yet spent "a dime" on TV specificially targetted at teacher tenure. The push of that campaign has been the governor's education adviser Margaret Fortune talking to editorial boards. Even the eternally optimistic Schwarzenegger campaign sounded glum about Prop 76, the governor's spending initiative that, at one point looked to be the linchpin of his reform package. "No question we are the underdogs," said Harris. Schwarzenegger's campaign also said that 80 percent of voters, according to their numbers, intended to vote for what props they thought were best--irregardless of their feelings for the governor. That would be good for the campaign, presumably, because the governor's 33% approval rating is lower than everything he is pushing except Prop 76. But I have a feeling the governor's campaign doesn't believe that 80 percent number any more than I do. The election, after all, is the governor's. And he is the face and the money behind 74-77. The proof may be in the pudding: Today the campaign goes on the air with a quasi-mea culpa ad, in which the governor directly addresses the viewers for 30 seconds, saying, "I've had a lot to learn, and sometimes I learned the hard way...But my heart is in this, and I want to do right by you." The campaign would be unlikely to put the unpopular governor front and center--apologizing--if he was not a driver of voters. The best article on what polls mean and why they differ this election season is here. Also, Capitol Weekly broke down the wording of the governor's poll versus the public polls.