About the Author

Shane Goldmacher is a former reporter for Capitol Weekly. He is a graduate of UC Berkeley, where he served as editor of the Berkeley Political Review.

E-mail Shane

Favorites in Capitol Weekly

  • National NAACP bucks CA chapter, backs tobacco tax initiative

  • NAACP's Huffman assailed for tobacco, telecom payments

  • Schwarzenegger targets the 'ElimiDate Voter'

  • Legislators tap Sacramento interests for campaign cash

  • New York developer's eminent-domain crusade comes to California

  • Schwarzenegger's election-year olive branches

  • Dems, Gov. tapped same spots for campaign cash

  • Schwarzenegger has a special interest in Capitol-area money

  • Schwarzenegger's million-dollar woman

  • The kings and queens of the California political quotation

  • All about Phil: Angelides is strategist in own campaign

  • "Women of the year" married to men of Legislature

  • With new law, chase for campaign cash becomes family affair

  • High school student gives governor $44,600

  • Going to interview with CTA? Be sure to look into the camera

  • David Crane: Arnold's other Democratic adviser

  • The rise of the blogs: How the GOP uses the Web to organize

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    The 2006 Election Results

    1A: 76.9-23.1
    1B: 61.3-38.7
    1C: 57.4-42.6
    1D: 56.6-43.4
    1E: 64-36
    83: 70.6-29.4
    84: 53.7-46.3
    85: 45.9-54.1
    86: 48-52
    87: 45.2-54.8
    88: 23-77
    89: 25.5-74.5
    90: 47.6-52.4

    U.S. Sen.
    Feinstein 59.7
    Mountjoy 34.9
    Gov.
    Schwarzenegger 55.8
    Angelides 39.2
    Lt. Gov
    Garamendi 49.5
    McClintock 44.9
    Atty. Gen.
    Brown 56.7
    Poochigian 37.9
    Sec. of state
    Bowen 48.5
    McPherson 44.7
    Treasurer
    Lockyer 54.8
    Parrish 37
    Controller
    Chiang 50.9
    Strickland 40.1
    Insur. Comm.
    Poizner 50.7
    Bustamante 38.9

    For complete election results click here.

    The Primary Election Results

    Gov.
    Angelides 48.2
    Westly 43.1
    Lt. Gov
    Garamendi 42.9
    Speier 39.3
    Figueroa 17.8
    Atty. Gen.
    Brown 63.2
    Delgadillo 36.8
    Sec. of state
    Bowen 61.1
    Ortiz 38.9
    Treasurer
    Parrish 56.4
    Richman 43.6
    Controller
    Democratic primary
     Chiang 53.4
    Dunn 46.6
    Republican primary
     Strickland 40.9
    Maldonado 36.9
    Insur. Comm.
    Bustamante 70.5
    Kraft 29.5
    Supt. of Schools
    O'Connell 52.5, avoids run-off

    For complete election results click here.

    The Special Election Results

    73: 47.4-52.6
    74: 45-55
    75: 46.6-53.4
    76: 38-62
    77: 40.5-59.5
    78: 41.5-58.5
    79: 38.9-61.1
    80: 34.3-65.7

    For complete election results click here.

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    Saturday, October 22, 2005

    The Turnout Model

    How many voters will turn out on November 8th? No one seems to know for sure. In Sacramento they are doubling the number of voters to a polling station in expectation of low turnout...but there have also been unusually high requests for absentee ballots, a sign of voter interest.

    And today, the Ventura County Star reports

    "I don't think people are going to thumb their noses at this election...I've got 20,000 absentee ballots returned already," said the Ventura County Registrar of voters.

    Conventional wisdom is that a low turnout favors Republicans. A turnout close to 30 percent would most likely balance out the voting electorate as half Dems, half Reeps (these numbers, mind you, are all guesstimates). A higher turnout (say 40-45 percent) would favor Democrats. Anything much higher than that, conventional wisdom goes, makes it very tough for Republicans to win in the state.

    posted by Shane Goldmacher at 3:02 PM

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