About those PPIC numbers
I just looked back at the PPIC numbers and they are a bit surprising. First off, the housing bond, which has been consistently trailing behind the rest of the package in other polling, leads the pack with a solid 57 percent. And the levee bond, which conventional wisdom has as the third most popular measure, is at 56 percent while transportation (50) and education (51) are lagging. Meanwhile Prop 84, which is essentially a water bond back by the environmental community--a very popular constituency in California-- has only 40 percent support. |
Comments on "About those PPIC numbers"
All of this struck me as well. I'm not sure this poll is very credible, although it does show why you should not give up if a single poll shows you down. All sorts of things can go wrong
The Field Poll a month ago showed Prop. 84 with an 18 point lead (49 percent Yes, 31 pecent No) and the Housing bond losing by a few points. Since there have been no TV ads to anything to change the number you have to wonder which poll is accurate.
PPIC is very credible. I think like the previous poster said, it is more about who is campainging already. Most California voers are not wonks.